H2 Capital: UK illegal gambling wagers to surpass £33bn by 2028

UK players could be gambling as much as £33bn a year with illegal online operators by the end of 2028, according to new research by H2 Gambling Capital.

Detailing its findings, H2 Capital said annual spend on unlicensed websites in the UK in three years’ time could almost double the £17bn wagered with black market operators in 2025.

This, the consultancy said, would mean almost one fifth of all UK online gambling spend would take place with illegal websites. Forecast activity covers both online casino gaming and sports betting. 

BGC: forecasts a ‘wake-up call’ for government

Responding to the findings, the UK’s Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) aired its concerns about the projected increase. It called on the government to take more action to prevent illegal operators from targeting UK players.

“These forecasts are a wake-up call,” the BGC said. “The black market is not a distant threat. It is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers.

“By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators. These sites pay no UK tax and support no British jobs. They offer none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector.”

The BGC set out how stronger action against black market site would offer more security to licensed operators and consumers. It said the regulated betting and gaming sector supports 109,000 jobs, contributes £6.8bn to the economy and generates £4bn in tax each year.

BGC warns mooted affordability checks will help black market 

With this, it repeated its earlier opposition to proposals to introduce so-called ‘affordability checks’. The Gambling Commission is set to decide later this month whether to roll out new measures that are currently undergoing a pilot scheme on a wider basis.

Under the pilot, financial risk assessments have been triggered when customers record net deposits of more than £1,000 within 24 hours or £2,000 over a rolling 90-day period. The Commission and BGC previously agreed a higher £5,000 monthly threshold during the initial frictionless checks phase.

However, despite the agreed thresholds, some reports say many players with significantly lower deposit levels have still had to prove their financial capacity.

“The lesson for policymakers is clear,” the BGC said. “If the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting. They will simply move to the black market.

“As the Gambling Commission considers financial risk assessments, it is vital that any checks are genuinely frictionless and targeted. Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector.

“That is why ministers and regulators must avoid measures that hand an advantage to the black market.”

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