Macquarie: US iGaming stocks surging ahead of sports betting rivals
Macquarie said the first quarter of 2026 has reinforced a clear split in the US online gambling sector, with iGaming-focused operators pulling away from sports-focused rivals.
Online gambling operators broadly delivered positive results in the first three months of 2026, averaging a 9% EBITDA beat against expectations, analysts at Macquarie said in a note published yesterday (18 May).
The news comes amid the rise of prediction markets in the US, which has contributed to heavy share price damage for the two leading sportsbook operators.
However, the headline figure masked sharply contrasting fortunes beneath the surface, with iGaming-led businesses continuing to outperform while sportsbook-heavy names struggled to convert decent results into positive estimate revisions.
iGaming-first business Rush Street Interactive (RSI) led the pack with a 25% EBITDA beat and 9% upward revisions to full-year estimates, while Super Group posted a 5% beat with 1% revisions.
By contrast, sports betting leaders DraftKings and Flutter posted modest beats but saw their 2026 EBITDA estimates revised down by 2% and 1% respectively.
The analysts attributed the divergence to stronger structural growth and margin visibility among iGaming operators, versus ongoing volatility in sportsbook results driven by hold normalisation and targeted reinvestment.
The note also highlighted a growing disconnect between earnings performance and stock moves across the sector.
Sportradar shares fell around 23% despite only a 1% estimate reduction – a consequence of two short seller reports alleging the business generates a significant portion of its revenue from unlicensed operators – while RSI rose around 22% against 9% EBITDA revisions.
The Macquarie team said this pointed to positioning and macro factors rather than underlying earnings changes driving share prices.
On prediction markets, the analysts said they continued to view the competitive threat as limited given product constraints, adding that activity from DraftKings and Flutter was “better characterised as incremental participation rather than structural disruption.”
The analysts raised their target price for RSI to $30 from $28, citing its iGaming-focused model and what they described as a “now leading online growth profile.”
https://next.io/news/investment/macquarie-us-igaming-stocks-surging-ahead-betting-rivals/