Taking Stock Of The Prediction Market Comments — And What’s Next
As many expected, it rained and poured during the final 48-hour window for submission of comments to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the application of existing rules and potential future rules or amendments for prediction markets in the U.S.
On March 16, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig announced the April 30 deadline for the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM), in which the CFTC sought public comment on the need to amend or issue new regulations concerning event contracts traded on prediction markets. Specifically, Selig called for comments "concerning the application of statutory core principles and Commission regulations to prediction markets, the types of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest, cost-benefit considerations related to prediction markets, and other topics.”
Early commenters included U.S. senators, NCAA President Charlie Baker, academics, industry observers, and regular citizens, many of the latter participating in a coordinated campaign of opposition.
Toward the April 30 deadline, comments dropped from the highest-profile stakeholders, the largest and most influential proponents, and some of the most formidable opponents. The opponents view prediction markets as either a competitive threat, a national security risk, a public health hazard, simply illegal based on existing law and regulations, or some combination.
In the final hours before the deadline, comments arrived from Polymarket (Justin Hertzberg, Polymarket US CEO), Kalshi (several including from CEO and co-founder Luana Lopes Lara), Coinbase, CME Group, Robinhood, FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, MLB, NBA, PGA TOUR, ATP, the Futures Industry Association, Coalition for Prediction Markets, a coalition of attorneys generals from 41 jurisdictions (Ohio, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Utah, 34 other states, and the District of Columbia), Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), and the Options Clearing Corporation, which are all now in/on the record.
But before we get into some key passages, statutory language, and other observations from the recent commenters, let’s consider what’s next.
https://www.ingame.com/prediction-markets-anprm-synopsis/