Survey says Americans view sports prediction markets as gambling
New polling, commissioned by anti-prediction markets coalition Gambling is Not Investing (GINI), suggests widespread concern among Americans about the growing prevalence of sports event trading.
The findings, put together in a study conducted by Morning Consult, suggest a clear public perception that these products resemble traditional gambling, despite being structured as financial instruments.
The survey, conducted from 17 to 22 March, gathered data from 15,029 US adults and showed that 81% of respondents believe trading on sporting outcomes via prediction markets is betting.
GINI founder and executive director Mick Mulvaney said: “This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America.
“Prediction markets are trying to disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans and dodging consumer safeguards like age requirements.”
A similar proportion of respondents said such platforms should follow state gaming regulations, including age restrictions, tax frameworks, and responsible gambling requirements.
Public concern extends to the availability of prediction markets to younger users. The data shows that 77% of respondents worry that allowing users aged 18 to access prediction markets could increase gambling-related harm among young adults.
Traditional sportsbooks, which typically enforce a minimum age of 21, were implicitly contrasted with these platforms.
Another 73% said that labelling bets as event contracts, swaps, or futures makes it harder, especially for younger users, to understand the associated financial risks.
At the federal level, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has maintained that prediction market contracts fall under financial regulation rather than gaming law.
CFTC enforcement director David Miller recently restated the agency’s position that such contracts are classified as swaps, not sports betting, and that insider trading rules apply.
He also confirmed that the CFTC’s enforcement priorities include market manipulation, spoofing, and violations tied to anti-money laundering laws.
GINI ready to take on prediction markets
GINI was formed earlier this month and argues that prediction markets are offering sports-related contracts without adhering to the regulatory standards applied to licensed sportsbooks.
Mulvaney, a former White House chief of staff during President Donald Trump’s first term, has stated that platforms offering bets on outcomes such as major sporting events should operate under the same rules as established operators like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Mulvaney’s position reflects a regulatory parity argument rather than opposition to gambling itself. During his time in the South Carolina General Assembly, he supported legalising sports betting.
The issue at hand for Mulvaney is the prediction market model itself. He does not believe they should be allowed to offer sports betting under the guise of offering regulated financial swaps.
He has stated previously: “Let’s face it, if it quacks like a duck, it’s sports betting.”
The coalition he leads has stronger views on the topic. It includes several organisations that oppose gambling expansion more broadly, creating a nuanced dichotomy within its membership.
Membership includes seven organisations, according to the GINI website, and all of them, for differing reasons, have campaigned against gambling expansion in the US.
https://next.io/news/betting/survey-americans-view-sports-prediction-markets-gambling/