Google allowing prediction market ads starting Jan. 21

Google is “reclassifying” the prediction market as a financial product rather than gambling and opening up advertising in the U.S., starting Jan. 21.

Under the new policy, the tech giant will permit ads for the prediction market, which it defines as “platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports or current events”, for federally regulated firms.

Only CFTC-authorized sites allowed to run ads

Advertisers must either be authorized by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract market (DCM) for a specialised platform listing economic or sports outcomes; or as a brokerage by the National Futures Association (NFA) offering third-party access to products listed by a DCM.

A spokesperson for Google confirmed this move is unrelated to its new partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket. Under this agreement, the Alphabet-owned company integrated data from the online betting platforms into its finance tools.

Through its AI-powered tools, including search, users can now query GDP growth, election probabilities and other event outcomes.

At the time, both Kalshi and Polymarket claimed that activity on their platforms are simply “event contracts” and therefore should be regulated like commodities and not subject to state gambling rules.

Expert suggests Google offers PMs more legitimacy

“The reclassification of prediction markets as financial instruments rather than gambling products represents the commercialization of Google’s partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket last year,” RAAS Lab co-founder Thomas Ives told SBC Americas.

“By integrating real-time odds into Google search and finance, Google validated that users want this data, which is highly aligned with American culture and social media activity. Now it’s letting these providers bid for that attention.

“This update is a potential green light for prediction markets to potentially outpace traditional sportsbooks in growth,” Ives said, adding it is often perceived as a “cleaner alternative to gambling”.

“As it falls under CFTC jurisdiction, prediction market ads should be able to be run nationally, leapfrogging the state-by-state compliance patchwork that standard gambling brands need to go through.”

In the policy update, Google confirmed that advertisers must apply for certification to run targeted ads in the U.S. All ads, products and landing pages must also comply with other Google Ads policies as well as local laws, financial regulations and industry standards.

It told advertisers that ads could only be targeted in approved jurisdictions and a separate application is required for each location.

Nevada excluded from new prediction market policy

The company also made clear this new policy excludes Nevada, which is currently in the midst of legal disputes with prediction market platforms and Kalshi is facing a court order to exclude the state from its sports offering.

Unregulated platforms, including those that offer tokenized predictions (such as Jupiter or Polymarket’s global site) or advisory services (like Underdog), are not eligible to advertise either.

Ives predicts this could see the prediction market grow beyond the U.S.

“While the U.K. has flirted with peer-to-peer betting, there is currently no domestic predictions market offering. However, we’re already seeing massive global players like Allwyn looking at this space, and Google opening the ad inventory will do much to further legitimize the space.

“Ultimately, the success of these ads will come down to creative relevance. Instead of running the old gambling playbook, pushing odds next to sports-adjacent content, the ad should act as an extension of its media [such as] an ‘interest rate’ prediction campaign next to a relevant article in the FT. This will drive results and do much to expand awareness of the predictions market offering to a wider audience.”

https://sbcamericas.com/2026/01/14/google-ads-prediction-markets-jan-21/